Tropical Depression 91W (Emong) Update Number 001
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91W (EMONG) UPDATE NUMBER 001
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday 17 June 2013
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday 18 June 2013
The strong disturbance (LPA) over the Philippine Sea, east of Bicol Region has strengthened into Tropical Depression 91W [EMONG]…expected to accelerate northward across the North Philippine Sea. Its outer rainbands will continue to bring occasional to widespread rains and thunderstorms across portions of the Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas tonight.
This depression is likely to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring windy/cloudy conditions with occasional rains and thunderstorms across Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, CaLaBaRZON, Western Luzon incl. Western Bicol beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. <!–Typhoon Alert: With its possible projected path, areas from Ilocos Provinces down to La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, and Zambales may experience Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) with “on-and-off” slight/moderate/heavy rains beginning this evening or Sunday (kindly view the EFFECTS and HAZARDS SUMMARY at the middle bottom of this update). Please take all precautionary measures on this powerful cyclone. Refer to your national disaster agencies for more details.–><!–Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) has weakened while over the Celebes Sea. Its weak center was located about 243 km southeast of General Santos City (3.0N Lat 127.0E Lon)…with maximum winds of 25 km/hr near the center…moving east-southeast slowly. This disturbance has a low chance ( <!––>
Residents and visitors along the east coast of Central and Northern Luzon should closely monitor the development of 91W (EMONG).<!–This is the last and final update on Yagi (Dante).–>
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 6:00 pm today, the center of Tropical Depression 91W (Emong) was located over the Philippine Sea…about 313 km east of Pandan, Catanduanes or 563 km east of Polillo Island…currently moving north with a forward speed of 15 km/hr in the general direction of the North Philippine Sea.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 45 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. <!––><!–Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 175 kilometers from the center. <!–A WeatherPhilippines/Meteomedia Automated Weather Station (AWS) based in Dipolog City, Zamboanga Del Norte has recorded 152 millimeters (mm) of rainfall in a span of 24 hours, which is considered extreme or very heavy. <!–A Meteomedia/WeatherPhilippines Weather Station located in Dipolog City, recorded a 24-hour rainfall accumulation of 50.6 millimeters (heavy).–> The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of 91W (Emong) is estimated to be heavy (250 mm).
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TD 91W (Emong) is expected to accelerate north-northwest to northerly during the next 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of 91W (Emong) will be just along the open waters of the North Philippine Sea through Wednesday evening.
91W (Emong) is forecast to slowly intensify during the next 24 hours…becoming a Tropical Storm on Tuesday…and will continue to maintain its strength throughout the forecast period. <!–The weakening of Prapiroon (Nina) in the next couple of days is due to its movement across cooler sea surface temperatures (lower heat content) and unfavorable atmospheric conditions.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:
TUESDAY EVENING: Accelerating northward across the open waters of the North Philippine Sea…about 423 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan [6PM JUNE 18: 18.2N 126.2E @ 65kph].
WEDNESDAY EVENING: Moving closer to Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands…about to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 250 km southwest of Okinawa, Japan [6PM JUNE 19: 24.6N 126.2E @ 65kph].<!–
SATURDAY MORNING: Dissipating over the Northwest Pacific Ocean…just an area of low pressure…about 418 km south-southeast of Tokyo, Japan [5AM JUN 15: 31.5N 140.2E @ 35kph].
**Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS):<!– There is a possibility that DOKSURI (DINDO) will move more northwesterly and pass along Balintang Channel…passing near Calayan and Batanes Group of Islands. This scenario may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge northeast of the storm weakens.
BANYAN’s (RAMON’s) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
<!– SURIGAO DEL NORTE: Passing very near or over Surigao City [ETA: 4:00-6:00 AM Local Time, Wednesday].
CEBU: Passing more or less 25 km north of Metro Cebu [ETA: 2:00-4:00 PM Wednesday].
<!– BACOLOD-ILOILO AREA: Passing over or very close to Bacolod & Iloilo Cities [ETA: 10:00 AM to 12:00 PM Today].<!–
CAPIZ: Passing more or less 40 km south of Roxas City [ETA: 8:00-10:00 PM Wednesday].
AKLAN: Passing more or less 40 km south of Boracay [ETA: 1:00-3:00 AM Thursday].–>
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm’s parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
<!– CLOUD-FILLED EYE – <!–over water (West Philippine Sea).<!–..moving away from Northern Palawan.<!–north of Ha Long Bay.–> <!–Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL – over water (West Philippine Sea).<!–..not yet affecting any land areas….but approaching the coast of Surigao Del Sur and Davao Oriental.–><!–over Northern Palawan.–> <!–Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) – over water (West Philippine Sea).<!–…<!–possible "Eye" may be forming underneath the cirrus canopy.–> <!–Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (110-140 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO).–>
–><!– INNER RAINBANDS – over water (NW Pacific Ocean). Affected Areas: None.<!–…but could reach the Coastal Areas of Ilocos Region, La Union and Pangasinan on Sunday.–><!–affecting and spreading across Southern Palawan–><!– Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
–>DEVELOPING RAINBANDS – Its westernmost outer rainbands spreading across Southeastern Luzon and Eastern Visayas. Affected Areas: Bicol Region, Samar & Leyte.<!–…its westernmost part starts to recede away from Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Islands.–> Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-60 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION – from 5 up to 50 mm (slight to moderate rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the rainbands (see above)…with isolated amounts of 51 to 250 mm (moderate to heavy) along areas near the center of 91W (Emong).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING – possible 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m) above normal tide levels…accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Ilocos Region, La Union, Pangasinan and Zambales this weekend through Monday. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Visayas and the rest of Western Luzon (click here to know more about Storm Surge).–>
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
Meanwhile, Typhoon BOLAVEN (JULIAN) has moved out of PAR this morning…approaching Okinawa as it weakens slightly. Its eye was located about 224 km SE of Okinawa, Japan or 943 km NE of Basco, Batanes (25.3N 129.6E)…with maximum sustained winds of 220 kph with higher gusts and was moving NW @ 11 kph towards Okinawa-Ryukyus Area. This system will not directly affect any part of the Philippines.<!– The 24-hour TC Formation Potential remains LOW (<30% Chance).–> <!– To view the latest information on this storm kindly click and visit this link.–>
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with some isolated to scattered showers, rains or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: VISAYAS AND PALAWAN. Moderate SW’ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon June 17, 2013
Class/Name: TD 91W (Emong)
Location of Center: 14.2º N Lat 127.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 313 km E of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 320 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 359 km ENE of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 4: 387 km ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 426 km ENE of Metro Naga
Distance 6: 453 km E of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 7: 563 km E of Polillo Island
Distance 8: 581 km SE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 9: 585 km ESE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 10: 658 km ENE of Metro Manila<!–
Distance 11: 323 km (S) from Metro Manila<!–
Distance 12: 520 km (SE) from Metro Cebu–>
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph <!–
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 2–>
Present Movement: North @ 15 kph
Towards: North Philippine Sea<!–
CPA [ETA] to Southern Palawan: Now [1-2AM PhT]–>
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [250 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)<!–
Size (in Diameter): 390 km [Average]–>
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for
Source: MeteoMedia | weather.com.ph