Tropical Storm UTOR (LABUYO) Update Number 003



WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM UTOR (LABUYO) UPDATE NUMBER 003
Issued: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Saturday 10 August 2013
Next Update: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Saturday 10 August 2013


11W (LABUYO) has rapidly gained strength into a Tropical Storm (TS) while over the Philippine Sea…and is now internationally known as UTOR…threatens Central and Northern Luzon.

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This storm will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along mountain slopes. <!–

Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) remains disorganized as it approaches the eastern shoreline of Davao Oriental…expected to cross Mindanao tonight. Latest dynamic forecast models show the system becoming a Tropical Depression (TD) once it reaches the Sulu Sea or West Philippine Sea on Monday or Tuesday. Its developing center was located about 65 km SE of Cateel, Davao Oriental (7.3N Lat 126.9E Lon)…with maximum winds of 35 km/hr near the center…moving WNW @ 26 kph towards Central Mindanao. This disturbance has a medium chance (30-50%) of developing into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours. Its rainbands embedded within the ITCZ will bring cloudy skies with moderate to heavy rains and thunderstorms along the Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao tonight until Sunday.



Residents and visitors along Luzon including Batanes Group of Islands and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of Utor (Labuyo).<!–*This is the last and final update on Mangkhut (Kiko).–>

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 am today, the center of TS Utor (Labuyo) was located over the the Philippine Sea…about 725 km east-northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar or 755 km east of Virac, Catanduanes…currently moving west-northwest with a decreased forward speed of 19 km/hr in the general direction of Northern Luzon.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to near 85 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. <!– Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 85 kilometers from the center…and–> Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 75 kilometers from the center. <!–A WeatherPhilippines/Meteomedia Automated Weather Station (AWS) based in Mamburao, Occidental Mindoro has recorded 142.0 millimeters (mm) of rainfall in a span of 24 hours, which is considered heavy. <!–A Meteomedia/WeatherPhilippines Weather Station located in Dipolog City, recorded a 24-hour rainfall accumulation of 50.6 millimeters (heavy).–> Utor (Labuyo) <!–has is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 370 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Utor (Labuyo) is estimated to be heavy (250 mm).


2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Utor (Labuyo) is expected to continue moving generally west-northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Utor (Labuyo) will be passing well to the north of Bicol Region on Sunday afternoon…approaching the eastern shoreline of Aurora and Isabela by Sunday evening…and will cut across Northern Luzon via Northern Aurora-Quirino-Nueva Vizcaya-Benguet-La Union beginning midnight until noon on Monday.

Utor (Labuyo) is expected to continue to strengthen within the next 24 to 48 hours…becoming a Typhoon on Sunday morning. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows the potential Typhoon reaching peak winds of more than 165 km/hr on Sunday evening – before it makes landfall over Northern Aurora. <!–The weakening of Prapiroon (Nina) in the next couple of days is due to its movement across cooler sea surface temperatures (lower heat content) and unfavorable atmospheric conditions.



The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

SUNDAY MORNING: Becomes a Typhoon as it moves across the Philippine Sea…about 290 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes [5AM AUGUST 11: 14.7N 126.8E @ 130kph].

MONDAY MORNING: Crossing Northern Luzon or over the northern part of Nueva Vizcaya…about 45 km southwest of Cauayan, Isabela [5AM AUGUST 12: 16.6N 121.4E @ 165kph].

TUESDAY MORNING: Moving across the West Philippine & South China Seas, exits PAR as it weakens slightly…about 490 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China [5AM AUGUST 13: 18.0N 115.7E @ 120kph].



*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY



Below is the summary of the storm’s parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

<!– ERODED EYEover Fuzhou City, China and the East Coast of Fujian Province. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).


EYEWALL – where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: East coast of Fujian Province and Fuzhou City (click here to know more about the Eyewall).

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CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) – where Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (100-120 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO). Possible “Eye” may also be forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Affected Areas: Coastal areas of Mong Cai and Ha Long Vietnam and the Northern part of Gulf of Tonkin.


–>INNER RAINBANDS – where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: None (still over Philippine Sea).


OUTER RAINBANDS – where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: None (still over Philippine Sea). (click here to know more about Rainbands)


24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION – from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)…with isolated amounts of 101 to 250 mm (heavy) along areas <!–to the south, west near the center of Utor (Labuyo).

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COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING – possible 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m) above normal tide levels…accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Western and Northwestern Taiwan and Southeastern China especially Fujian Province today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern and Eastern China, Yaeyama-Miyako-Ryukyu Islands, and Extreme Northern Luzon including Batanes-Babuyan-Calayan Islands (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

–>

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat Aug 10, 2013
Class/Name: TS Utor (Labuyo)
Location of Center: 13.7ΒΊ N Lat 131.2ΒΊ E Lon
Distance 1: 725 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 755 km E of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 800 km E of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 4: 815 km ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 865 km E of Metro Naga
Distance 6: 895 km ESE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 7: 1010 km ESE of Polillo Island
Distance 8: 1015 km SE of Casiguran, Aurora<!–
Distance 9: 300 km SSE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 10: 400 km NNE of Metro Manila<!–
Distance 11: 335 km NE of Metro Manila<!–
Distance 12: 520 km (SE) from Metro Cebu–>
MaxWinds (1-min avg):85 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph <!–
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 1–>
Present Movement: WNW @ 19 kph
Towards: Northern Luzon<!–
CPA [ETA] to Northern Vietnam: Tonight [10PM-12AM PhT]–>
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [250 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 370 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)




Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for
Weather.com.ph

Source: MeteoMedia | weather.com.ph

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